How the polling average works

An average of published polls. It is not a forecast and it doesn't give anyone a chance of winning.

Every average on this site follows the same rule, in every race:

Window. Polls whose last day of fieldwork falls in the past 7 weeks (49 days).
One poll per pollster. Each pollster counts once, with its newest poll. If a poll was published for more than one group, we use likely voters first, then registered voters, then all voters, then adults.
The math. A plain mean of each candidate’s published number, with no weighting and no adjustment. Rounded to one decimal.
Who gets a number. A candidate needs to be listed in at least half of the polls used.
Partisan polls stay in. We say how many of the polls used were partisan or internal, so you can weigh that yourself.
Left out. Polls published with a start date after their end date, and polls that name nobody on the race’s ballot.
Minimum. At least 2 polls from 2 different pollsters. With fewer, we show the newest poll instead and say so.

The line on a race’s poll chart applies the same rule to each day in the window. It uses the polls we hold today, so a poll released late counts on the days its fieldwork covers. It shows the average as it stands now for each date, not what this site showed on that date.

Polling data from VoteHub, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Average computed by Election Wrld. See every poll.