Florida State House District 51

Tue, Nov 3 · Represented by Hilary Holley Republican · Member list as of Oct 28

Octavio E. HernandezDemocratic

No published poll names both candidates.The last winner we have no longer holds this seat, so that result isn't shown.

Hilary HolleyRepublican · Incumbent

Last election: Josie Tomkow (Republican) won by 13.8 points, 2024
On the 2026 ballot: 2 candidates

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Left column: HernandezRight column: Holley

Races: Won 0 of 1; None listed

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Wins and losses count the races in our results files, the same as each profile.

More about this race

Candidates on the ballot

Octavio E. HernandezDemocratic
Hilary HolleyIncumbentRepublican

Source: dos.elections.myflorida.com, dated Oct 28

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Official results for Florida

History (22 elections for this seat)

Votes for listed candidates: 89,733
Election day: November 5, 2024
District map: Older district map (2022 to 2024)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2024, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanJosie TomkowWon	Republican	51,05056.9%	56.9%
DemocraticOctavio E. Hernandez	Democratic	38,68343.1%	43.1%

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2022, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanJosie TomkowWon(incumbent)	Republican	——	—

Votes for listed candidates: 96,099
Election day: November 3, 2020
District map: Older district map (2012 to 2021)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2020, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanTyler SiroisWon(incumbent)	Republican	59,40561.8%	61.8%
DemocraticJoan Marie Majid	Democratic	36,69438.2%	38.2%

Votes for listed candidates: 77,434
Election day: November 6, 2018
District map: Older district map (2012 to 2021)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2018, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanTyler SiroisWon	Republican	44,70457.7%	57.7%
DemocraticMike Blake	Democratic	32,73042.3%	42.3%

Votes for listed candidates: 85,096
Election day: November 8, 2016
District map: Older district map (2012 to 2021)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2016, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanTom GoodsonWon(incumbent)	Republican	50,73559.6%	59.6%
DemocraticMike Blake	Democratic	34,36140.4%	40.4%

Votes for listed candidates: 63,288
Election day: November 4, 2014
District map: Older district map (2012 to 2021)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2014, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanSteve CrisafulliWon(incumbent)	Republican	42,36366.9%	66.9%
DemocraticJoe Murray	Democratic	20,92533.1%	33.1%

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2012, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanSteve CrisafulliWon(incumbent)	Republican	——	—

Votes for listed candidates: 45,127
Election day: November 2, 2010
District map: Older district map (2002 to 2011)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2010, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanLarry AhernWon	Republican	22,70650.3%	50.3%
DemocraticJanet C. Long(incumbent)	Democratic	19,92244.1%	44.1%
OtherVictoria A. Torres	Other	2,4995.5%	5.5%

Votes for listed candidates: 63,780
Election day: November 4, 2008
District map: Older district map (2002 to 2011)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2008, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticJanet C. LongWon(incumbent)	Democratic	37,11958.2%	58.2%
RepublicanChristopher M. Peters	Republican	26,66141.8%	41.8%

Votes for listed candidates: 43,495
Election day: November 7, 2006
District map: Older district map (2002 to 2011)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2006, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticJanet C. LongWon	Democratic	22,02850.6%	50.6%
RepublicanDottie K. Reeder	Republican	21,46749.4%	49.4%

Votes for listed candidates: 63,538
Election day: November 2, 2004
District map: Older district map (2002 to 2011)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2004, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanLeslie WatersWon(incumbent)	Republican	39,13561.6%	61.6%
DemocraticMichael A. Smith	Democratic	22,21635.0%	35.0%
OtherMatt Sullivan	Other	2,1873.4%	3.4%

Votes for listed candidates: 48,746
Election day: November 5, 2002
District map: Older district map (2002 to 2011)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2002, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanLeslie WatersWon(incumbent)	Republican	29,42860.4%	60.4%
DemocraticRichard Langton	Democratic	19,31839.6%	39.6%

Votes for listed candidates: 38,895
Election day: November 7, 2000
District map: Older district map (1992 to 2001)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 2000, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanLeslie WatersWon(incumbent)	Republican	20,95753.9%	53.9%
DemocraticMary Brennan	Democratic	17,93846.1%	46.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 26,780
Election day: November 3, 1998
District map: Older district map (1992 to 2001)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1998, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanLeslie WatersWon	Republican	13,51250.5%	50.5%
DemocraticMartha Lenderman	Democratic	13,26849.5%	49.5%

Votes for listed candidates: 37,800
Election day: November 5, 1996
District map: Older district map (1992 to 2001)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1996, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticMary BrennanWon(incumbent)	Democratic	24,42664.6%	64.6%
RepublicanPaul Crumrine	Republican	13,37435.4%	35.4%

Votes for listed candidates: 32,748
Election day: November 8, 1994
District map: Older district map (1992 to 2001)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1994, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticMary BrennanWon(incumbent)	Democratic	17,52953.5%	53.5%
RepublicanCarl Neuman	Republican	15,21946.5%	46.5%

Votes for listed candidates: 43,630
Election day: November 3, 1992
District map: Older district map (1992 to 2001)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1992, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticMary BrennanWon(incumbent)	Democratic	24,62056.4%	56.4%
RepublicanRichard Butler	Republican	19,01043.6%	43.6%

Votes for listed candidates: 29,432
Election day: November 6, 1990
District map: Older district map (1982 to 1991)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1990, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanPatricia A. MuscarellaWon	Republican	18,78963.8%	63.8%
DemocraticMarilyn J. Dewey	Democratic	10,64336.2%	36.2%

Votes for listed candidates: 36,277
Election day: November 8, 1988
District map: Older district map (1982 to 1991)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1988, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanGerald S. RehmWon(incumbent)	Republican	21,85460.2%	60.2%
DemocraticMarilyn J. Dewey	Democratic	14,42339.8%	39.8%

Votes for listed candidates: 32,280
Election day: November 4, 1986
District map: Older district map (1982 to 1991)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1986, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanGerald S. RehmWon	Republican	19,05959.0%	59.0%
DemocraticMichael P. Klapka	Democratic	13,22141.0%	41.0%

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1984, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanByron CombeeWon(incumbent)	Republican	——	—

Votes for listed candidates: 29,576
Election day: November 2, 1982
District map: Older district map (1982 to 1991)

Florida House of Representatives District 51, 1982 to 2024, 1982, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanByron CombeeWon	Republican	14,99650.7%	50.7%
DemocraticCharlotte F. Hubbard	Democratic	14,58049.3%	49.3%

2024: MEDSL 2024 official precinct returns (individual_states zips), retrieved Oct 28, 2026. Compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns; not an official source
1982 to 2022: State Legislative Election Returns, 1967-2022 (Carl Klarner, Harvard Dataverse), retrieved Oct 28, 2026. Compiled by Carl Klarner (Harvard Dataverse) from official returns; not an official source

Last contest in this district on file: 2024.

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Election Wrld. (2026). Florida State House District 51, election results 1982 to 2024. https://www.electionwrld.com/fl/house/51. Retrieved October 31, 2026.

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Sources

Sources: Census TIGERweb Legislative MapServer (120th CDs layer 0, 119th CDs layer 4, 2026 SLD upper layer 1 and lower layer 2) (US Census Bureau, public domain), retrieved Oct 28, 2026; Open Civic Data division identifiers (census_autogenerated us_sldl/us_sldu and openstates state files); also (sld-recent.json): Open Civic Data division identifiers (country-us) (CC0 (repository); also (sld-recent.json): CC0 1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026; Open States people (current) CSVs (CC0-1.0 (Open States people data)), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by Open States volunteers and staff (rosters from state legislature sites) from official returns, not an official source; MEDSL 2024 official precinct returns (individual_states zips) (Not stated in the GitHub repository (an earlier label said "MIT (repo)", which the repository does not support). MEDSL's Harvard Dataverse records are CC0 1.0, but these GitHub files were not checksum-matched to the Dataverse files, so CC0 is not claimed for them.), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns, not an official source; State Legislative Election Returns, 1967-2022 (Carl Klarner, Harvard Dataverse) (CC0 1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by Carl Klarner (Harvard Dataverse) from official returns, not an official source.

District id: ocd-division/country:us/state:fl/sldl:51

DataState data (JSON)Sources: State Legislative Election Returns, 1967-2022 (Carl Klarner, Harvard Dataverse), MEDSL 2024 official precinct returnsData as of Oct 28, 2026