Iowa Senate

Tue, Nov 3 · Seat held by Joni Ernst Republican since Jan 2015 (not a candidate in 2026)

Ashley HinsonRepublicanAge 43 · 5 years in Congress

Ashley Hinson 46.1Josh Turek 45.8

Average of 9 polls, Sep 24 to Oct 28, from VoteHub · how it’s calculated

Newest poll

1 is a partisan pollNewest · co/efficient, field dates Oct 28, released Oct 29, 1,020 likely voters, partisan (R), per VoteHubPolls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub

Josh TurekDemocraticAge 47 · 4 years in politics

Show all 3 candidates on the ballot

Josh TurekDemocratic
Ashley HinsonRepublican
Thomas LaehnLibertarian

Showing major-party nominees, incumbents and candidates with 5%+ in the latest poll or comparable fundraising.

Polls over time

24 polls, through Election Day Nov 3

Each dot is one published poll. The thick line is the 7-week average, not a forecast. How it’s calculated. All polls. Polls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub.

The polls in this chart (24)

5 polls released in the last 14 days · latest results range from 44–46% (D) and 43–48% (R) (newest 5 polls on the chart)

Each dot is a poll with both names, 24 of the 27 for this race. Dots and lines follow the field end date. The table adds the day each poll was released.

Polls shown in the chart, newest field end date first, with the day each was released
Pollster	Field dates	Released	Sample	Turek	Hinson
co/efficient	Oct 28	Oct 29	1,020 likely voters	46	48
Echelon Insights	Oct 16 to Oct 23	Oct 27	403 likely voters	45	43
InsiderAdvantage	Oct 21 to Oct 22	Oct 23	1,200 likely voters	45	47
co/efficient	Oct 15 to Oct 19	Oct 20	863 likely voters	45	48
National Public Affairs	Oct 8 to Oct 12	Oct 20	678 likely voters	44	47
YouGov	Oct 6 to Oct 12	Oct 15	2,245 likely voters	47	46
Marist University	Oct 8 to Oct 11	Oct 15	1,100 likely voters	48	45
Emerson College	Oct 5 to Oct 6	Oct 9	650 likely voters	45	46.6
CNN/SSRS	Sep 29 to Oct 5	Oct 8	801 likely voters	43	45
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	Sep 24 to Sep 28	Oct 2	1,008 likely voters	49	47
Marist University	Sep 17 to Sep 20	Sep 22	1,050 registered voters	50	42
co/efficient	Sep 14 to Sep 16	Sep 17	831 likely voters	42	46
YouGov	Sep 3 to Sep 8	Sep 11	2,166 registered voters	44	43
YouGov	Sep 3 to Sep 8	Sep 11	2,041 likely voters	47	43
Emerson College	Aug 31 to Sep 1	Sep 3	750 likely voters	45	50
Suffolk University	Aug 20 to Aug 23	Aug 26	500 likely voters	40.8	45.4
Emerson College	Aug 2 to Aug 4	Aug 6	712 likely voters	45	48
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	Jun 23 to Jun 27	Jul 2	1,003 registered voters	50	46
The New York Times/Siena University	Jun 15 to Jun 27	Jul 1	600 likely voters	46	48
Cygnal	Jun 16 to Jun 19	Jun 28	600 likely voters	44.2	46
Public Policy Polling	Jun 3 to Jun 4	Jun 9	557 registered voters	46	46
Echelon Insights	Apr 3 to Apr 9	Apr 21	377 likely voters	46	45
GBAO	Mar 10 to Mar 16	Apr 21	1,200 likely voters	43	47
Change Research	Jan 8 to Jan 11	Apr 21	1,108 likely voters	41	44

Polls left off the chart (3 of 27)

Polls for this race that are not on the chart, with the reason for each
Poll	Why it is not on the chart
Echelon InsightsApr 3 to Apr 9	Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Ashley Hinson, Zach Wahls)
GBAOMar 10 to Mar 16	Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Ashley Hinson, Zach Wahls)
Change ResearchJan 8 to Jan 11	Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Ashley Hinson, Zach Wahls)

Side by side

Hinson left, Turek right

Total receipts, 2025-2026 cycle, through Oct 14: $14.1M; $24.3M
Cash on hand: $2.2M; $3.1M
Donor-based spectrum: LiberalCentristConservativeHinsonTurek
Record: 3-0; None on file
Years in politics: 5; 4
Age on Election Day: 43; 47

Ashley Hinson on fec.gov. Josh Turek on fec.gov. One or more are matched to the FEC by name, party and seat, so a total could belong to someone else.

How these are counted

Total receipts line of each candidate’s principal campaign committee, 2025-2026 cycle. Other sites may show career, six-year or all-committee totals, which differ. The spectrum is a published research score, not our rating. How this works. Record is wins and losses in the races in our results files, the same count as each profile.

What changed in this race

Newest first

Oct 29
NEW POLLIowa Senate
Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson 48, Josh Turek 46
co/efficient, Oct 28 to Oct 28, 1,020 likely voters · via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0)
Oct 27
NEW POLLIowa Senate
Iowa Senate: Josh Turek 45, Ashley Hinson 43
Echelon Insights, Oct 16 to Oct 23, 403 likely voters · via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0)

All changes

More about this race

Candidates on the ballot

Josh TurekDemocratic
Ashley HinsonRepublican
Thomas LaehnLibertarian

Source: sos.iowa.gov (PDF), dated Aug 19

Seat on the ballot, shift from 2014 to 2020: 1.8 points toward Democrats (Republican by 8.3 in 2014, Republican by 6.5 in 2020).

Vote in Iowa

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Official results for Iowa

History (16 elections for this seat)

Votes for listed candidates: 1,216,646
Election day: November 8, 2022

US Senate, Iowa, 2022, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon	Republican	681,50156.0%	56.0%
DemocraticMichael Franken	Democratic	533,33043.8%	43.8%
OtherOther	Other	1,8150.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,671,828
Election day: November 3, 2020

US Senate, Iowa, 2020, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanJoni ErnstWon	Republican	864,99751.7%	51.7%
DemocraticTheresa Greenfield	Democratic	754,85945.2%	45.2%
LibertarianRick Stewart	Libertarian	36,9612.2%	2.2%
OtherSuzanne Herzog	Other	13,8000.8%	0.8%
Scattered write-ins	Write-in	1,2110.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,541,036
Election day: November 8, 2016

US Senate, Iowa, 2016, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon	Republican	926,00760.1%	60.1%
DemocraticPatty Judge	Democratic	549,46035.7%	35.7%
LibertarianCharles Aldrich	Libertarian	41,7942.7%	2.7%
OtherJim Hennager	Other	17,6491.1%	1.1%
IndependentMichael Luick-Thrams	Independent	4,4410.3%	0.3%
Scattered write-ins	Write-in	1,6850.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,129,700
Election day: November 4, 2014

US Senate, Iowa, 2014, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanJoni ErnstWon	Republican	588,57552.1%	52.1%
DemocraticBruce Braley	Democratic	494,37043.8%	43.8%
IndependentRick Stewart	Independent	26,8152.4%	2.4%
LibertarianDouglas Butzier	Libertarian	8,2320.7%	0.7%
OtherBob Quast	Other	5,8730.5%	0.5%
IndependentRuth Smith	Independent	4,7240.4%	0.4%
Scattered write-ins	Write-in	1,1110.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,116,063
Election day: November 2, 2010

US Senate, Iowa, 2010, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon	Republican	718,21564.4%	64.4%
DemocraticRoxanne Conlin	Democratic	371,68633.3%	33.3%
LibertarianJohn Heiderscheit	Libertarian	25,2902.3%	2.3%
Scattered write-ins	Write-in	8720.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,502,918
Election day: November 4, 2008

US Senate, Iowa, 2008, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticTom HarkinWon	Democratic	941,66562.7%	62.7%
RepublicanChristopher Reed	Republican	560,00637.3%	37.3%
Scattered write-ins	Write-in	1,2470.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,479,228
Election day: November 2, 2004

US Senate, Iowa, 2004, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley	Republican	1,038,17570.2%	70.2%
DemocraticArthur Small	Democratic	412,36527.9%	27.9%
LibertarianChristy Ann Welty	Libertarian	15,2181.0%	1.0%
GreenDaryl A. Northrop	Green	11,1210.8%	0.8%
OtherEdwin Fruit	Other	1,8740.1%	0.1%
Scattered write-ins	Write-in	4750.0%	0.0%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,023,075
Election day: November 5, 2002

US Senate, Iowa, 2002, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticTom HarkinWon	Democratic	554,27854.2%	54.2%
RepublicanGreg Ganske	Republican	447,89243.8%	43.8%
GreenTimothy A. Harthan	Green	11,3401.1%	1.1%
LibertarianRichard J. Moore	Libertarian	8,8640.9%	0.9%
Scattered write-ins	Write-in	7010.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 947,632
Election day: November 3, 1998

US Senate, Iowa, 1998, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley	Republican	648,48068.4%	68.4%
DemocraticDavid Osterberg	Democratic	289,04930.5%	30.5%
OtherSusan Marcus	Other	7,5610.8%	0.8%
OtherMargaret Trowe	Other	2,5420.3%	0.3%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,224,054
Election day: November 5, 1996

US Senate, Iowa, 1996, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticTom HarkinWon	Democratic	634,16651.8%	51.8%
RepublicanJim Lightfoot	Republican	571,80746.7%	46.7%
IndependentSue Atkinson	Independent	9,7680.8%	0.8%
OtherFred Gratson	Other	4,2480.3%	0.3%
IndependentJoe Sulentic	Independent	1,9410.2%	0.2%
OtherShirley E. Pena	Other	1,8440.2%	0.2%
Scattered write-insName as filed: Scatter	Write-in	2800.0%	0.0%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,292,201
Election day: November 3, 1992

US Senate, Iowa, 1992, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon	Republican	899,76169.6%	69.6%
DemocraticJean Lloyd-Jones	Democratic	351,56127.2%	27.2%
OtherStuart Zimmerman	Other	16,4031.3%	1.3%
OtherSue Atkinson	Other	6,2770.5%	0.5%
OtherMel Boring	Other	5,5080.4%	0.4%
OtherRosanne Freeburg	Other	4,9990.4%	0.4%
OtherCarl Eric Olsen	Other	3,4040.3%	0.3%
OtherRichard O'Dell Hughes	Other	2,9180.2%	0.2%
OtherCleve Andrew Pulley	Other	1,3700.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 983,933
Election day: November 6, 1990

US Senate, Iowa, 1990, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticTom HarkinWon	Democratic	535,97554.5%	54.5%
RepublicanThomas J. Tauke	Republican	446,86945.4%	45.4%
Scattered write-insName as filed: Scatter	Write-in	1,0890.1%	0.1%

Votes for listed candidates: 891,762
Election day: November 4, 1986

US Senate, Iowa, 1986, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley	Republican	588,88066.0%	66.0%
DemocraticJohn O. Roehrick	Democratic	299,40633.6%	33.6%
IndependentJohn Masters	Independent	3,3700.4%	0.4%
Scattered write-insName as filed: Scatter	Write-in	1060.0%	0.0%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,292,700
Election day: November 6, 1984

US Senate, Iowa, 1984, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
DemocraticTom HarkinWon	Democratic	716,88355.5%	55.5%
RepublicanRoger W. Jepsen	Republican	564,38143.7%	43.7%
IndependentGarry De Young	Independent	11,0140.9%	0.9%
OtherOther	Other	4220.0%	0.0%

Votes for listed candidates: 1,276,986
Election day: November 4, 1980

US Senate, Iowa, 1980, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley	Republican	683,01453.5%	53.5%
DemocraticJohn Culver	Democratic	581,54545.5%	45.5%
IndependentGarry De Young	Independent	5,8580.5%	0.5%
LibertarianRobert V. Hengerer	Libertarian	4,2330.3%	0.3%
IndependentJohn Ingram Henderson	Independent	2,3360.2%	0.2%

Votes for listed candidates: 824,576
Election day: November 7, 1978

US Senate, Iowa, 1978, every candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes and share	Share
RepublicanRoger W. JepsenWon	Republican	421,59851.1%	51.1%
DemocraticDick Clark	Democratic	395,06647.9%	47.9%
IndependentGerald Leo Baker	Independent	4,2230.5%	0.5%
LibertarianBen L. Olson	Libertarian	3,6890.4%	0.4%