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Minnesota District 1

Tue, Nov 3 · Seat held by Brad Finstad Republican since Aug 2022

Brad FinstadRepublican · IncumbentAge 50 · 4 years in Congress

Brad Finstad 44.3Jake Johnson 45.3

Average of 3 polls, Sep 18 to Oct 14, from VoteHub · how it’s calculated

Newest poll

2 are partisan pollsNewest · Public Policy Polling, field dates Oct 13 to Oct 14, released Oct 21, 588 likely voters, partisan (D), per VoteHubPoll sponsored by House Majority PACPolls updated Oct 31, 4:06 a.m. ET, from VoteHub

Jake JohnsonDemocratic

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Minnesota District 1: Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad

Preview card: Minnesota District 1: Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad

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Last election
Brad Finstad (Republican) won by 17.1 points, 2024
Margin since 2022
5.6 points toward Republicans
On the 2026 ballot
2 candidates

All Minnesota districts

Polls over time

3 polls, through Election Day Nov 3
40%50%60%Oct 2026NovNov 3GBAO Strategies, Sep 18 to Sep 21: Johnson 47SurveyUSA, Oct 4 to Oct 9: Johnson 46Public Policy Polling, Oct 13 to Oct 14: Johnson 43GBAO Strategies, Sep 18 to Sep 21: Finstad 46SurveyUSA, Oct 4 to Oct 9: Finstad 44Public Policy Polling, Oct 13 to Oct 14: Finstad 43Johnson45.3Finstad44.3

The thick line is the 7-week average, not a forecast. How it’s calculated. All polls. Polls updated Oct 31, 4:06 a.m. ET, from VoteHub.

The polls in this chart (3)

1 poll released in the last 14 days · latest results range from 43 to 47% (D) and 43 to 46% (R) (newest 3 polls on the chart)

3 of the 3 polls for this race, each with both names, plotted on the field end date.

Polls shown in the chart, newest field end date first, with the day each was released
PollsterField datesReleasedSampleJohnsonFinstad
Public Policy PollingOct 13 to Oct 14Oct 21588 likely voters4343
SurveyUSAOct 4 to Oct 9Oct 13565 likely voters4644
GBAO StrategiesSep 18 to Sep 21Sep 25500 likely voters4746

Side by side

Left column: FinstadRight column: Johnson

Total receipts, 2025-2026 cycle, through Oct 14
$2.8M
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$604K
$561K
Donor-based spectrum
LiberalCentristConservativeFinstadNo published score for Johnson
Races
Won 5 of 5
None listed
Years since first win
4
Not available
Age on Election Day
50
Not available

Money: FEC bulk data, through Oct 14. One or more are matched to the FEC by name, party and seat, so a total could belong to someone else.

How these are counted

Total receipts line of each candidate’s principal campaign committee, 2025-2026 cycle. Other sites may show career, six-year or all-committee totals, which differ. Finstad: $2,765,870 received, $603,622 cash on hand. Johnson: $3,507,568 received, $561,094 cash on hand. The spectrum is a published research score, not our rating. How this works. Wins and losses count the races in our results files, the same as each profile.

More about this race

Candidates on the ballot

Source: electionresultsfiles.sos.mn.gov, dated Oct 28

Shift since 2022: 5.6 points toward Republicans (Republican by 11.5 in 2022, Republican by 17.1 in 2024).

All Minnesota districts

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2024 US House margin
  • D 15+ pts
  • D 5 to 15 pts
  • D under 5 pts
  • R under 5 pts
  • R 5 to 15 pts
  • R 15+ pts
  • Other winner
  • No data
Show these districts as a list (8)
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Vote in Minnesota

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Official results for Minnesota

History (25 elections for this seat)

1976 to 2024: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024, retrieved Oct 28, 2026. Compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns; not an official source

District numbers are reused after each redistricting, so rows on older lines cover different territory than today's Minnesota District 1.

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Cite this page

Election Wrld. (2026). Minnesota District 1, US House results. https://www.electionwrld.com/mn/congress/1. Retrieved October 31, 2026.

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Sources

Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024 (CC0 1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns, not an official source; Census TIGERweb Legislative MapServer (120th CDs layer 0, 119th CDs layer 4, 2026 SLD upper layer 1 and lower layer 2) (US Census Bureau, public domain), retrieved Oct 28, 2026; unitedstates/congress-legislators (current) (CC0-1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by the @unitedstates project volunteers (rosters from official congressional sources) from official returns, not an official source.

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DataState data (JSON)Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024, VoteHub polls (CC BY 4.0), FEC, DIME (ODC-BY), Portraits: unitedstates/images (public domain), Photo creditsData as of Oct 30, 2026 (candidate list Oct 28, 2026)