Montana District 1
Tue, Nov 3 · Seat held by Ryan K. Zinke Republican since Jan 2023
Aaron Flint 42.2Sam Forstag 48.1
Average of 4 polls, Sep 19 to Oct 21, from VoteHub · how it’s calculated
Newest poll
1 is a partisan pollAlso in the average: Nick Sheedy 4.7Newest · Montana State University Billings, field dates Oct 5 to Oct 21, released Oct 30, 287 adultsPolls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub
Show all 3 candidates on the ballot
- Aaron FlintRepublican
- Sam ForstagDemocratic
- Nick SheedyLibertarian
Showing major-party nominees, incumbents and candidates with 5%+ in the latest poll or comparable fundraising.
- Last election
- Ryan K. Zinke (Republican) won by 7.7 points, 2024
- Margin since 2022
- 4.6 points toward Republicans
- On the 2026 ballot
- 3 candidates, open seat
Polls over time
5 polls, through Election Day Nov 3Each dot is one published poll. The thick line is the 7-week average, not a forecast. How it’s calculated. All polls. Polls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub.
The polls in this chart (5)
3 polls released in the last 14 days · latest results range from 32–48% (R) and 43–50% (D) (newest 5 polls on the chart)
Each dot is a poll with both names, 5 of the 6 for this race. Dots and lines follow the field end date. The table adds the day each poll was released.
| Pollster | Field dates | Released | Sample | Flint | Forstag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | Oct 5 to Oct 21 | Oct 30 | 287 adults | 32 | 49 |
| Emerson College | Oct 12 to Oct 14 | Oct 22 | 329 likely voters | 46 | 50 |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 12 to Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 541 likely voters | 45 | 48 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | Sep 19 to Sep 24 | Sep 29 | 314 likely voters | 45.9 | 45.4 |
| Upswing Research | Apr 30 to May 5 | May 22 | 401 likely voters | 48 | 43 |
Polls left off the chart (1 of 6)
| Poll | Why it is not on the chart |
|---|---|
| Upswing ResearchApr 30 to May 5 | Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Matt Rains, Aaron Flint) |
Side by side
Flint left, Forstag right- Total receipts, 2025-2026 cycle, through Oct 14
- $2.9M
- $4.3M
- Cash on hand
- $408K
- $726K
Aaron Flint on fec.gov. Sam Forstag on fec.gov. One or more are matched to the FEC by name, party and seat, so a total could belong to someone else.
How these are counted
Total receipts line of each candidate’s principal campaign committee, 2025-2026 cycle. Other sites may show career, six-year or all-committee totals, which differ.
What changed in this race
Newest firstNEW POLLMontana District 1
Montana District 1: Sam Forstag 49, Aaron Flint 32
Montana State University Billings, Oct 5 to Oct 21, 287 adults · via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0)
NEW POLLMontana District 1
Montana District 1: Sam Forstag 50, Aaron Flint 46
Emerson College, Oct 12 to Oct 14, 329 likely voters · via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0)
More about this race
Candidates on the ballot
Open seat
The current holder, Ryan K. Zinke, is not on the candidate list.
- Aaron FlintRepublican
- Sam ForstagDemocratic
- Nick SheedyLibertarian
Party nominees only, not the certified ballot.
Source: candidatefiling.mt.gov, dated Oct 28
Shift since 2022: 4.6 points toward Republicans (Republican by 3.1 in 2022, Republican by 7.7 in 2024).
All Montana districts
- D 15+ pts
- D 5 to 15 pts
- D under 5 pts
- R under 5 pts
- R 5 to 15 pts
- R 15+ pts
- Other winner
- No data
Show these districts as a list (2)
- Montana District 1· Ryan K. Zinke (R), Republican by 7.7 points, 2024
- Montana District 2· Troy Downing (R), Republican by 32.0 points, 2024
Map settings
Vote in Montana
- Register
- Registration, polling place, sample ballot lookup, mail ballot status
- ID rules
- Election office
Trouble voting? Election Protection hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE. A nonpartisan coalition of civil-rights and voting-rights groups, not a government service. 866ourvote.org
History (10 elections for this seat)
- Votes for listed candidates
- 322,266
- Election day
- November 5, 2024
- District map
- Same as today
US House, Montana District 1, 2024, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanRyan K. ZinkeWon Republican 168,52952.3% DemocraticMonica Tranel Democratic 143,78344.6% LibertarianDennis Hayes Libertarian 9,9543.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 247,960
- Election day
- November 8, 2022
- District map
- Same as today
US House, Montana District 1, 2022, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanRyan K. ZinkeWon Republican 123,10249.6% DemocraticMonica Tranel Democratic 115,26546.5% LibertarianJohn Lamb Libertarian 9,5933.9% - No results on file 1991 to 2021
- Votes for listed candidates
- 164,246
- Election day
- November 6, 1990
- District map
- Older district map (1982 to 1990)
US House, Montana District 1, 1990, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticPat WilliamsWon Democratic 100,40961.1% RepublicanBrad Johnson Republican 63,83738.9% - Votes for listed candidates
- 189,683
- Election day
- November 8, 1988
- District map
- Older district map (1982 to 1990)
US House, Montana District 1, 1988, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticPat WilliamsWon Democratic 115,27860.8% RepublicanJim Fenlason Republican 74,40539.2% - Votes for listed candidates
- 159,731
- Election day
- November 4, 1986
- District map
- Older district map (1982 to 1990)
US House, Montana District 1, 1986, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticPat WilliamsWon Democratic 98,50161.7% RepublicanDon Allen Republican 61,23038.3% - Votes for listed candidates
- 193,452
- Election day
- November 6, 1984
- District map
- Older district map (1982 to 1990)
US House, Montana District 1, 1984, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticPat WilliamsWon Democratic 126,99865.6% RepublicanGary K Carlson Republican 61,79431.9% LibertarianRoyer G Warren Libertarian 4,6602.4% - Votes for listed candidates
- 167,602
- Election day
- November 2, 1982
- District map
- Older district map (1982 to 1990)
US House, Montana District 1, 1982, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticPat WilliamsWon Democratic 100,08759.7% RepublicanBob Davies Republican 62,40237.2% LibertarianDon Doig Libertarian 5,1133.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 183,740
- Election day
- November 4, 1980
- District map
- Older district map (1972 to 1980)
US House, Montana District 1, 1980, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticPat WilliamsWon Democratic 112,86661.4% RepublicanJohn K "Jack" McDonald Republican 70,87438.6% - Votes for listed candidates
- 150,109
- Election day
- November 7, 1978
- District map
- Older district map (1972 to 1980)
US House, Montana District 1, 1978, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticPat WilliamsWon Democratic 86,01657.3% RepublicanJim Waltermire Republican 64,09342.7% - Votes for listed candidates
- 167,784
- Election day
- November 2, 1976
- District map
- Older district map (1972 to 1980)
US House, Montana District 1, 1976, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticMax BaucusWon Democratic 111,48766.4% RepublicanW D "Bill" Diehl Republican 56,29733.6%
All rows: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024, retrieved Oct 28, 2026
District numbers are reused after each redistricting, so rows on older lines cover different territory than today's Montana District 1.
Download and cite
Cite this page
Election Wrld. (2026). Montana District 1, US House results. https://www.electionwrld.com/mt/congress/1. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
Embed this seat
<iframe src="https://www.electionwrld.com/embed/mt/congress/1" title="Montana District 1, US House" width="100%" height="400" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:13px">Data: <a href="https://www.electionwrld.com">Election Wrld</a>, CC BY 4.0</p>Sources
Sources
- Used for
- web/data/results/house/{ST}.json. The Dataverse API refuses this file behind a guestbook, so the identical file was taken from two public GitHub copies (Hackquantumcpp/snoutcounter-midterms-2026-model data/1976-2024-house.csv and sta199-f26/sta199-f26.github.io _data/gerrymander/1976-2024-house.tab), which are byte-identical to each other and match the md5 a9566ac393913a1af343284e837c17bb that Dataverse lists for dataset version 15.0 (2026-03-09). sha256 76eec42483ee9f0fc5cf6e377442c783d1ae6eefa929729fd6561a69bab47f2a.
- License
- CC0 1.0
- Retrieved
- October 28, 2026
- Link
- https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IG0UN2
- Used for
- cd.topo.json, sld/*.topo.json
- License
- US Census Bureau, public domain
- Retrieved
- October 28, 2026
- Link
- https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/Legislative/MapServer
- Used for
- web/data/officials/congress.json (name, party, bioguide, official site, service start) and web/data/people (birth year, committees, social media handles and profile links; links only, nothing copied from the platforms). As-of: the files saved in data/raw/people on 2026-10-29.
- License
- CC0-1.0
- Retrieved
- October 28, 2026
- Link
- https://unitedstates.github.io/congress-legislators/legislators-current.json
DataState data (JSON)Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024, VoteHub polls (CC BY 4.0), FECData as of Oct 28, 2026